2027 and the Opposition Gamble: Who will Challenge Tinubu?

The road to 2027 is already shaping into what promises to be another seismic contest in Nigeria’s ever-evolving democratic journey. At the heart of the unfolding political drama lies a delicate equation: the ambitions of two prominent opposition figures, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi. Both men have their eyes on the presidency. Both command loyal followings. Both have divergent political histories and yet are often mentioned in the same breath when conversations tilt towards forming a viable coalition against the political colossus that is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Despite the nostalgia of their joint ticket in 2019 under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), it appears almost certain that Atiku and Obi will not run together in 2027. The answer lies not only in their political trajectories but also in the expectations of their respective bases.

A Tale of Two Ambitions

Atiku Abubakar, now aligned fully with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) following his formal resignation from the PDP, is not ready to retire from presidential ambition. With six previous attempts and a massive northern (especially northeast) political structure, he is still regarded by many in the political establishment as the most experienced contender to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Peter Obi, however, represents a different kind of momentum. His 2023 campaign disrupted the status quo and ignited a wave of civic awakening among Nigerian youths, urban middle-class voters, and the diaspora. For this bloc, Obi symbolises the promise of a new Nigeria. Any attempt to subordinate that vision to a familiar figure like Atiku would be seen as betrayal. Obi stepping back to deputise Atiku is almost unthinkable, and such a move would certainly cost him a significant portion of the ‘Obidient’ base.

The Coalition Question

There are currently moves suggestive of efforts to unite opposition forces through a broad ADC-led coalition. The ADC’s position that it will not zone its presidential ticket has sparked debate. While on the surface it may appear inclusive, many observers believe it leaves the door wide open for Atiku to emerge as the party’s flagbearer. That possibility has raised concerns within pro-Obi circles who believe such an outcome would signal a return to old power dynamics.

Will Atiku back Obi? It is difficult to imagine, but not beyond the realm of possibility. Yet, of the two, Obi is increasingly seen as the candidate with the broader national appeal, cutting across religious, ethnic, and generational divides. His credibility is strongest among first-time voters and disenchanted citizens who want real change rather than political recycling.

With Obi’s allies currently working to stabilise the Labour Party and also reportedly holding quiet consultations across political lines, he appears to be the only candidate capable of holding the diverse elements of the emerging opposition together without setting off alarm bells.

Buhari’s Death and the Northern Succession Puzzle

The recent passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has introduced a new dynamic in the North’s political calculations. Buhari was more than a politician; he was a symbol of northern identity and conservative strength. With his death, the region is left without a towering unifying figure. The question now is: who takes on the large, loyal followership that Buhari commanded?

Atiku, while northern and Muslim, does not necessarily evoke the same cult-like loyalty Buhari enjoyed. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has some northern street appeal, especially in Kano, but lacks widespread national reach. Nasir El-Rufai has credibility among intellectual and policy circles, but his base is fragmented.

Obi’s rising northern engagements and his perceived openness to inclusion are beginning to earn him cautious but growing recognition across the North, particularly among the youth and middle-class Muslims who are increasingly disillusioned with the APC. Should he consolidate these gains and perhaps even secure an alliance with a northern heavyweight like Kwankwaso or El-Rufai, his path to a broader national consensus becomes even more credible.

Tinubu’s Strategic Advantage

Meanwhile, President Tinubu is playing a long-term game. Even before marking two years in office, he has managed to attract a number of former opposition leaders into the APC. Whether this is a show of growing national support or merely survival tactics by political job seekers is debatable. What is not in question, however, is that Tinubu is consolidating power through strategic alliances and elite consensus.

This gives the APC a clear head start. For the opposition, only a unified ticket can compete. Tinubu is a master of political chess and will not be easily unseated. A fragmented opposition, no matter how passionate, cannot win without strategic coherence.

Beyond Ego: The Opposition’s Defining Moment

At this critical juncture, Atiku and Obi must decide what kind of legacy they want to leave behind. For Atiku, this could be the final opportunity to play kingmaker rather than king. Supporting Obi, whose candidacy appears to carry more generational and trans-regional weight, could be a historic move that redefines his statesmanship.

For Obi, the task ahead is to deepen his bridge-building, secure broader alliances, and avoid internal divisions within the Labour Party or any platform he eventually embraces. He must be both idealistic and strategic, assertive yet inclusive.

The presence of other political forces like Nasir El-Rufai, Rauf Aregbesola, Rotimi Amaechi, and even Rabiu Kwankwaso and others further complicates the terrain. However, they also offer an opportunity for the opposition to build a big tent. Whether these actors are willing to work under a common vision, and under one ticket, is the defining test.

2027 will not be business as usual. It will be a political showdown where youth mobilisation, strategic alliances, and ideological clarity will matter more than ever before. In this context, Peter Obi arguably holds the most promise for an opposition renewal.

Whether the coalition coalesces around him or collapses under the weight of ego and ambition will determine if Nigerians will witness a credible alternative or a repeat of history.